Fishing Victoria Forum

The last few posts about the modelling based on 30 cases reflects what has been put out in the media. As someone with experience in writing and using models the main impact of a greater number of 'seeding' cases at the start of a model run is that it shortens the time to reach equilibrium condition...

So what's the go with this new South African variant (C.1.2)? Should the government be closing international borders for the time being (like what they tried to do with India and the delta variant) until we have proper quarantine facilities? Matt, I previously posted links where information on vari...

I know model runs are being done to look at the options for Victoria from here. You will get an insight into what decision makers are faced with if you look at the table of p37 of the doc in the link I previously posted: Vaccination threshold options.JPG They have in front of them a lot more detaile...

Yes provided the other conditions are meet such as less than 30 active cases in all of Australia. Hence with NSW the way it is that will not happen. Ah. First I've heard of the 30 active cases stipulation. I know that was just one of the scenarios used in the Doherty modelling but I didn't realise ...

Time to pack up and move out of Metro Melb then? That won't help you I'm not in Melbourne and locked in my house! Seriously though we need to get to the 80% target and then try to get back to something approaching normality. If that happens we will be able to say in hindsight we saved a lot of live...

or have a mutation that enables it to bypass the immunity granted from vaccination or infection with a previous strain. You don't need other strains, its happening in Delta all the time, resulting in reinfections. If it becomes more infectious or evades vaccine protection as a consequence it kills ...

So how much longer is it going to be for?!? Forever. Lambda is so much worse than delta, supposedly... Gemini variety will come along that's a wildly super infectious beast that kills everything it touches. Then Sigma will arrive, and it's Megatron in virus clothing. Oh and Zeta will arrive, it'll ...

So how much longer is it going to be for?!? I will share this. This morning I ran Victoria's current situation through a European model I have access to. I presented some of this last year. If their strategy is to keep cases to a peak of no more than <500 per day until we get to 70/80 % doubly vacc...

The state gov has a range of options in front of it. This article by Blakely provides an overview: https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/what-if-victoria-cannot-eliminate-delta-this-time We may well face the so called 'soft lockdown' with ongoing travel restrictions and limited return of some indu...

In an earlier post I alluded to the fact that I had access to pre-publication study information on the side effects of both the AZ and Pfizer vaccines. The study has now been published. It is very comprehensive, covering 29 million people, with charts even showing the windows when the different effe...