Fishing Victoria Forum

Yes jab doesn't mean you can't get it, but likelihood of spreading, ending up in hospital or dying is a lot less (thats the blurb anyway) Here is the blurb from three UK sources which forms the basis of predictions being made in this country: Vaccine Effectiveness 3 British Sources.JPG What has to ...

I said I would post more info on how Victoria is tracking when more info arrived and things firmed up on our trajectory. No quite their to make any reliable sort of projection but there are some indicative results coming through. A few other credible modellers have been looking at the Doherty Instit...

Billington's work is exceptional isn't it. Yes Dougie it is excellent particularly considering he hasn't got a biological background (but a strong mathematical one). Like the information I've presented from the European model there are limitations using this type of model which relies on a normal d...

People have asked me how the situation for our friends across the ditch is playing out. They are even more vulnerable than us in terms of vaccination rates - they have had issues with 'big pharma' and don't want to publicise it as they are over a barrel. Like Victoria it is a bit early to tell but t...

Yes, ok, here is the link: https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html Scroll down and you can see which local government areas are playing the game and who are an issue. No doubt the Vic gov have plots like this for us. Don't waste your time looking at Victoria, it looks potentially bad but its not ...

As I have indicated previously modelling is going on for the outbreaks in both NSW and Victoria. Unfortunately those things aren't being made public. There are confidentiality agreements in place restricting discussion. I support what Bob Hawke said years ago that providing the public with informati...

I can imagine the shitfight that the hospitals will face when it comes time to open up the country. This is the sort of shitfight they will face. I shouldn't be doing this but people have asked for clarification so ok. I need to state this is NOT the Doherty modelling. It comes from another which i...

Watch out for the new doomsday variant. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLH5rAKj0is&list=WL&index=68 That is a pretty appalling video! I suppose anything to sell news. I'll make three points: 1. The rate of mutation is not a measure of virulence. The nature of the changes determines that; 2. A fast...

This is a good read on where we are heading. Take note of the dampening effect of a 67% vaccination rate on an outbreak causing hundreds of new cases a day with many not linked:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... emic-virus

Restrictions will be around for a long time Crunched some numbers today at 80% fully vaccinated we have 5mil unvaccinated 68% of them will get infected that's 3.4mil of them 5% will need hospitalization that's 170000 of them 9% will require ventilation that's 15000 we 7000 ICU beds therefore restri...