Corona virus part 2

[Truedogz]

It is very frustrating to watch the news on tv and see reporters with graphics coming up with simple line graphs trying to provide a narrative on what is taking place. I even witnessed one becoming muddled and confusing the concepts of drugs stopping the disease and immunisation. Are they that scientifically illiterate? Do they get it, what the models and curves mean? More interested in showing a stern face and tripping people up.

OK, here is an example of what they could have done to teach their viewers about the various scenarios.

As I indicated a few pages ago there is a freeware European model that can be used (amongst others): http://covidsim.eu/

The AMA has released some results of their modeling for NSW and the results, as I presented earlier. Through a little bit of reading of what the current characteristics of infection, icu and death rates by plugging in the information you can get broadly similar results to what the AMA obtained - there are some differences but broadly speaking you get the same sort of results.

If you do it for Victoria (using a baseline of April 1) this is what you obtain.

Current situation using the latest Australian doubling time and applying it to Victoria, active community infections of 50, death rate of 1% this is what you get, a peak in about 115 days (early July):

During the peak here are the daily changes:

Once the outbreak stabilises here is the overall result:

Now if you can get Ro down to 1.6 as in the AMA modelling (say a doubling time of about 2 weeks) you get a peak in about 186 days (early November):

During the peak here are the daily changes:

Once the outbreak stabilises here is the overall result:

Now I did all of that in an hour. If they put graphics like that up as examples people would understand things a lot more, ie, flatten the curve and you drop the daily cases so the system can cope. We currently have about 800 ICUs in Victoria no where near the number needed for a July peak of 9600 spending 10 days in ICU. Push it out to November and we might have 3 to 5 thousand giving us the ability to cope with 3500.

Then you would highlight if you isolate the most vulnerable so they don't get it you reduce hospitalisation and deaths greatly; a simple table would illustrate this.

Finally flatten the curve enough and you could quash the outbreak and not have to deal with these sorts of numbers.

How hard was that to explain and demonstrate?

Are the figures accurate? They are probably out as there is some uncertainty in the percentages showing symptoms and those needing basic medical treatment; I made some rough guesses from a range of published information. The figures for ICU patients and deaths, without isolating the most vulnerable, wouldn't be that far off the mark. If I had put a couple of hours into it (as a paid reporter should) it would be even better.

Stuff like that would show people just how serious this thing is!

Best Wishes

Truedogz

[rb85]

It is very frustrating to watch the news on tv and see reporters with graphics coming up with simple line graphs trying to provide a narrative on what is taking place. I even witnessed one becoming muddled and confusing the concepts of drugs stopping the disease and immunisation. Are they that scientifically illiterate? Do they get it, what the models and curves mean? More interested in showing a stern face and tripping people up.

OK, here is an example of what they could have done to teach their viewers about the various scenarios.

As I indicated a few pages ago there is a freeware European model that can be used (amongst others): http://covidsim.eu/

The AMA has released some results of their modeling for NSW and the results, as I presented earlier. Through a little bit of reading of what the current characteristics of infection, icu and death rates by plugging in the information you can get broadly similar results to what the AMA obtained - there are some differences but broadly speaking you get the same sort of results.

If you do it for Victoria (using a baseline of April 1) this is what you obtain.

Current situation using the latest Australian doubling time and applying it to Victoria, active community infections of 50, death rate of 1% this is what you get, a peak in about 115 days (early July):

apr1 R=2.4 peak.png

During the peak here are the daily changes:

apr1 R=2.4 daily.png


Once the outbreak stabilises here is the overall result:

apr1 R=2.4 cumul.png

Now if you can get Ro down to 1.6 as in the AMA modelling (say a doubling time of about 2 weeks) you get a peak in about 186 days (early November):

apr1 R=1.6 peak.png

During the peak here are the daily changes:

apr R=1.6 daily.png

Once the outbreak stabilises here is the overall result:

apr R=1.6 cumul.png


Now I did all of that in an hour. If they put graphics like that up as examples people would understand things a lot more, ie, flatten the curve and you drop the daily cases so the system can cope. We currently have about 800 ICUs in Victoria no where near the number needed for a July peak of 9600 spending 10 days in ICU. Push it out to November and we might have 3 to 5 thousand giving us the ability to cope with 3500.

Then you would highlight if you isolate the most vulnerable so they don't get it you reduce hospitalisation and deaths greatly; a simple table would illustrate this.

Finally flatten the curve enough and you could quash the outbreak and not have to deal with these sorts of numbers.

How hard was that to explain and demonstrate?

Are the figures accurate? They are probably out as there is some uncertainty in the percentages showing symptoms and those needing basic medical treatment; I made some rough guesses from a range of published information. The figures for ICU patients and deaths, without isolating the most vulnerable, wouldn't be that far off the mark. If I had put a couple of hours into it (as a paid reporter should) it would be even better.

Stuff like that would show people just serious this thing is!

Best Wishes

Truedogz

Thanks Truedogz,

To reduce the risk of infection should high risk people get a supply of essentials reduce their time in public. Not stockpiling but cover themselves so rates of infection increases they are able to minimise their time in public

[Truedogz]

To reduce the risk of infection should high risk people get a supply of essentials reduce their time in public. Not stockpiling but cover themselves so rates of infection increases they are able to minimise their time in public

Yes, that could help. If you have a health condition related to your heart or lungs, immuno-supressed or are over 60 you must minimise contact with other people.

While the hording has been rediculous everyone should accumulate a bit extra in case you get sick. If there is a stage 4 lockdown you can travel to the supermarket for supplies. However, if get the virus even now you can't leave home! How do you get supplies, particularly if you are rural?

It is sensible to have some non-perishable food in case things turn out bad - that is coming from someone that took a direct hit from a cat 4 cyclone and then swiped by a cat 5 in his new house! In both cases travel restricted for many days.

Best Wishes

Truedogz

[rb85]

To reduce the risk of infection should high risk people get a supply of essentials reduce their time in public. Not stockpiling but cover themselves so rates of infection increases they are able to minimise their time in public

Yes, that could help. If you have a health condition related to your heart or lungs, immuno-supressed or are over 60 you must minimise contact with other people.

While the hording has been rediculous everyone should accumulate a bit extra in case you get sick. If there is a stage 4 lockdown you can travel to the supermarket for supplies. However, if get the virus even now you can't leave home! How do you get supplies, particularly if you are rural?

It is sensible to have some non-perishable food in case things turn out bad - that is coming from someone that took a direct hit from a cat 4 cyclone and then swiped by a cat 5 in his new house! In both cases travel restricted for many days.

Best Wishes

Truedogz

Thanks again. I’m not thinking of myself but am concerned about those close to me

[4liters]

Coles and Woolies are doing deliveries for people who can't leave the house because they've been corona-ed, or are old, immunocompromised or otherwise vulnerable and can't risk getting exposed.

No idea if they are doing that in country areas, although I guess the chances of getting it in the country are a fair bit less than the city.

[FishnMiss]

Something not seen much is how to boost your immune system with specific vitamins and minerals. Sadly most doctors do not put much effort into this area but simply rely on drugs from pharmaceutical companies. My personal experience with my GP was to Snigger that it had been recommended to take magnesium pills/capsules to reduce spasms/muscle cramps. Well I didn't want to take Diazepam as I've seen and experienced it's side effects, so I used a good quality Magnesium supplement and guess what it worked. I've spoken to a number of people who have had significantly positive results taking good quality vitamins. Sadly there are some very strange things being sold as supplements that discredit the legitimate one's.
So if you do know anyone with poor immune system or compromised, elderly etc, please look into Vic C, A, D, Iodine and a couple more.
Contrary to pharmaceutical companies stories that Vic C in particular is harmful, is a blatant Lie. A current test is being done in Wuhan to a group of Coronavirus patients giving them around 24000mg a day of Vic C intravenously to see how it does against this thing. They have found Vit C in high doses against some Cancers also.
In the meantime where possible wear a mask if in public with others, keep 1.5m distancing and use sanitizer too (It's working in Taiwan, China & Hungary),

[Truedogz]

Here is a bit of an update with some light at the end of the tunnel. We can use a bit of good news.

From Ben Phillip's site the April 2 data using the 7 day trend indicates that the doubling time for the outbreak has now increased to 9.1 days. Based on the model previously presented the peak would be pushed back beyond July towards later in the year. Keep in mind that a DT of about 14 days pushes it back to October and gives enough time for the health system to build up to cope:

Now if you look at the short term 3 day trend in data we finally see the potential for a DECLINE in cases rather than an increasing curve. The doubling time is now out past 12 days so with no improvement we would have a peak later in the year with lower numbers. However with the rate of change taking place we could see numbers starting to drop within the next 10 days, eg from about 4900 to 4700 active cases. Of course there is still the potential for it to increase to 15000 cases in ten days but the signs are encouraging:

If this continues after a few more days of data it may be possible to predict a short term low peak after which cases reduce to low levels and stabilise. Looking at the trend that could occur by June/July.

This is great news as eventually if infections get low they can change the strategy to shoot the rabbit dealing with sporadic localised outbreaks. The result could be some easing of some restrictions with stricter restrictions applied locally when the thing breaks out again. They are clearly planning for the worst but they could pull off a MUCH better result.

How soon could this happen? It really depends on the level of community transmission and the proportion of the population that carry the virus with few symptoms, ie silent carriers. I would suggest the current restrictions would be around for at least a few more months. With a bit of luck no stage 4 except for local outbreaks in the future.

This does not mean we would go back to normal. In places where they thought the outbreak was contained such as Singapore and Japan it is starting to break out again. Singapore did a good job initially with their track, trace, isolate strategy but it appears to be not enough. They are now moving in the same direction as Australia by closing schools and winding back some businesses.

This thing is not going away in a hurry but Australia is doing much better than most of the rest of the world.

It is definitely not the time to become complacent. Perhaps though the AFL might restart in August and we might get to go fishing again. Some types of restrictions would remain until a vaccine is available.

Best Wishes

Truedogz

[bowl]

Ffs so went into city to did my first aid today.
City is quiet, lot of shops closed n bugger all people around.
Onway back i ducked into millers rd kfc , drive past altona gate n carp park is packed.
Took old geelong rd thru hoppers crossing n bunnings car park park n similiar fir jb hi fi n werribee plaza.

Surly people r taking the **** out of this lockdown.

Frustrating....

[Boonanza]

I am in the Construction industry and it is still business as usual but unlike reported they are not practicing social distancing and I think there should be a lockdown. What does everyone else think?

Herald Sun Article Today!

BUILDING INDUSTRY SHUTDOWN WOULD BE DEVASTATING
Building employers and unions have warned the state government to expect economic devastation if the industry shuts down due to coronavirus.

In an unprecedented double act, Master Builders Victoria and the CFMEU have written to Premier Daniel Andrews pleading for construction to continue.

The industrial enemies also want state and federal governments to ensure that contractors are not punished with liquidated damages if projects are delayed due to the virus.

Last week, the City of Melbourne announced extended construction times for the inner city on weekdays and weekends to help compensate for social distancing measures on work sites. But the industry is clearly concerned it could be forced to shut down if government lockdowns are extended.

A group of industry associations and unions have co-operated to create a 20-page document of guidelines for employers and workers to deal with potential COVID-19 threats.

MBV chief executive Rebecca Casson and CFMEU state secretary John Setka have urged Mr Andrews to work inside the National Cabinet to ensure the building industry was kept open.

“We are firmly of the view that if our industry shuts down, the economic knock-on effects would be devastating on a scale that would dwarf what we have seen to date,” their letter said.

“As you will know, our industry accounts for 12.7 per cent of gross state product and 45 per cent of our state’s tax revenue (and we need you) to assist our economy now and to make sure it is ready to ramp up quickly as we hit recovery mode.”

Ms Casson and Mr Setka said social distancing on sites was slowing work down.

[laneends]

I am in the Construction industry and it is still business as usual but unlike reported they are not practicing social distancing and I think there should be a lockdown. What does everyone else think?

Herald Sun Article Today!

BUILDING INDUSTRY SHUTDOWN WOULD BE DEVASTATING
Building employers and unions have warned the state government to expect economic devastation if the industry shuts down due to coronavirus.

In an unprecedented double act, Master Builders Victoria and the CFMEU have written to Premier Daniel Andrews pleading for construction to continue.

The industrial enemies also want state and federal governments to ensure that contractors are not punished with liquidated damages if projects are delayed due to the virus.

Last week, the City of Melbourne announced extended construction times for the inner city on weekdays and weekends to help compensate for social distancing measures on work sites. But the industry is clearly concerned it could be forced to shut down if government lockdowns are extended.

A group of industry associations and unions have co-operated to create a 20-page document of guidelines for employers and workers to deal with potential COVID-19 threats.

MBV chief executive Rebecca Casson and CFMEU state secretary John Setka have urged Mr Andrews to work inside the National Cabinet to ensure the building industry was kept open.

“We are firmly of the view that if our industry shuts down, the economic knock-on effects would be devastating on a scale that would dwarf what we have seen to date,” their letter said.

“As you will know, our industry accounts for 12.7 per cent of gross state product and 45 per cent of our state’s tax revenue (and we need you) to assist our economy now and to make sure it is ready to ramp up quickly as we hit recovery mode.”

Ms Casson and Mr Setka said social distancing on sites was slowing work down.

building sites are a hot bed for carona risks. Imagine the young apprentice standing up and saying no when being in a position of being too close to someone else....I have no doubt they are being put at risk out fear of not speaking up and loosing there jobs. Many jobs simply cant be done at social distancing, and constant double handing of materials...

Most construction jobs are not essential to be done immediately, its mainly about keeping people in work, thats the real issue