Back in lockdown again.

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DougieK
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Re: Back in lockdown again.

Post by DougieK » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:46 pm

Truedogz wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:58 am


Dougie I don't know if Michael West is 'genuinely independent' or not but he is either unaware or deliberately omitted a key piece of information.

Independent doesn't necessarily mean unbiased. See Avi or FJ as an example from either side.
Truedogz wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:58 am


I reported earlier on the conversations I had with contacts in New Zealand and they told me that the offer that Pfizer made to the kiwis and us had an important string attached: the agreement to exclusively use Pfizer as its vaccine supply.

They will not make this public - at least at this time - as both countries still depend on Pfizer. Supporting this is Pfizer's 'offer' was 40 million - our entire requirement. The Kiwis told me that Pfizer was pretty aggressive about it and took out their wrath on them in the fallout from the WTO motion I mentioned previously.

Other than from you on here, I have not heard this piece of information repeated anywhere. Without trying to pass a value judgement on the validity of this information, I would suggest that it were true, the Prime Ministers office would be howling about it at every opportunity they can have.
Truedogz wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:58 am


Both Australia and New Zealand were going down the same path. Buy Pfizer initially as it was going to be the first approved and provides rapid protection but is difficult to transport and store, is very expensive and represents the first broadscale rollout of this style of vaccine = use it for front line workers. Buy AZ when it becomes available later, a more traditional vaccine but slower acting which Australia could manufacture that is easy to transport and store and is more cost effective = use it for the balance of the population.

Any rational person would consider that to be a sound strategy with lower risks. Where would Australia be now if we had taken the Pfizer offer with strings attached and it developed serious issues? At the very least we would have had a significant delay to the rollout while we tried to find an alternate vaccine.

I am not for one moment trying to say the Morrison government did a perfect job with the vaccine rollout which they haven't or that they were totally blameless in their negotiations with Pfizer. But the original choices on how to use Pfizer and AZ were actually sound in the circumstance. It was the selection of their other other vaccine options that can be seriously questioned and the mechanics of the initial rollout left a lot to be desired.
This entire conversation it taking place under the assumption that your 'mate in NZ' has provided a piece of information that as far as I can tell, nobody else has and isn't actually sourcable from anywhere.

Rational strategy would be to acquire enough of every vaccine as soon as possible for every eligible person in the country, at an absolute fraction of the cost of the lockdowns we've experienced since then. I would guess the total cost of the lockdowns would be over 1000 times the cost of buying an pair of AZ, Moderna, Pfizer and whatever else they possibly can to cater for the inevitable tribalised nonsensical bullsh1t that get's pushed by the media every time the PM's office messes something up, which seems to be literally everything they touch.

Taking the highest of each price paid by different countries for vaccines. Pfizer is $19.50 US / dose. AZ is 5.25 US. Moderna is $15.

52 Million Pfizers, at the highest price payed in the world, is just on $1 billion.

52 million AZ's is $273m

52 Million Moderna is $780.

This is assuming every person in the country gets two of everything regardless of age / underlying conditions whatever and it's still only just over $2 billion. We wouldn't actually need anywhere near that much. What's this lockdown costing us again? A bill a week or so?
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westvic
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Re: Back in lockdown again.

Post by westvic » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:52 pm

Truedogz wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:08 pm

Covid can't be stopped now and the way forward is to find a workable path with the best health outcomes.
So following this though to its logical conclusion we are all going to get covid19 and its just a matter of when??

If that is the case then the logical conclusion is to get the vax (in whatever form you can) to minimise the risk of anything seriously bad happening like death or long covid to either you or someone close.

Double Astra here :-D

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Re: Back in lockdown again.

Post by 4liters » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:54 pm

Sebb wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:24 pm
Truedogz wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:17 pm
Sebb wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:47 am
ben475 wrote:
Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:39 am
who knows sebb, 70%? 80%? will the % start going backwards as the early receivers require boosters to maintain their fully vaccinated status?
Yeah true

🤔
Seb at this point the earliest recipients of Pfizer - frontline workers - will probably require boosters. At this point their protection is expected to be dropping by about 3-5% per month. As for the rest of us the jury is out. If as expected many in the population that are immunised become exposed to covid their immunity will be boosted. So how this plays out will depend on how widespread covid becomes here over the next 6-12 months. Other countries might impose a requirement for a booster before us travelling there. If they have a higher proportion of their population unvaccinated eg Israel they might do that for the protection of the vulnerable.

Israel right now are rolling out boosters not much to protect those already vaccinated but those that aren't. Looking at the latest projections it looks like we will get to 80+% vaccinated. But again protecting those that aren't particularly if there are distinctive pockets of them is going to be important.
This booster thing, is it similar to the flu shot that we supposedly to get every year?
It will most likely be a similar vaccine to what we've been getting already but it will be tailored to one or more of the variants kicking around by using a spike protein with the same changes as those variants. They may also make some changes to the design of the vaccine to address the issue of protection falling over time.

A lot of vaccines seem to work better with a wider gap between shots, the recommended timing of some childhood vaccines is years apart often for this reason. The UK delayed second doses earlier in the year to get more people with their first doses and they found that there was better protection post second shot when they delayed that second shot.
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DougieK
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Re: Back in lockdown again.

Post by DougieK » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:57 pm

Mattblack wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 3:30 pm
Truedogz wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:08 pm
potatoeater wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:52 pm
As important as mental health is, it feels like it's being blown out of proportion by anti-vaxxers and anti-lockdown types.
That maybe quite true but now there is another issue at play.

There is a lockdown weary population and our leaders are faced with having very strict conditions with mediocre compliance or more moderate conditions with better compliance. This is their dilemma and obviously they are consulting with modellers on the best way forward ie risk/benefit analysis.

Covid can't be stopped now and the way forward is to find a workable path with the best health outcomes.

My hope is that the growing numbers scares some people into reviewing their behaviour, slowing the rate of growth and spread.
Yep, this is me.
I've followed every rule and restriction since day 1, I've been home schooling whilst juggling work and have I'm fully vaccinated.
I'm really tired of making sacrifices for people that don't do the right thing because of religion, culture or a distrust of science or authority.
I'm over it & I couldn't care less about the numbers anymore.
Gladys' ego and the media machine behind her basically ruined any chance Australia had of not getting a major outbreak.

Look at WA. Personal freedoms, 5.5 billion surplus, AFL grand final.

I feel exactly the same way you do by the way.
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Re: Back in lockdown again.

Post by 4liters » Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:58 pm

westvic wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:52 pm
Truedogz wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:08 pm

Covid can't be stopped now and the way forward is to find a workable path with the best health outcomes.
So following this though to its logical conclusion we are all going to get covid19 and its just a matter of when??

If that is the case then the logical conclusion is to get the vax (in whatever form you can) to minimise the risk of anything seriously bad happening like death or long covid to either you or someone close.

Double Astra here :-D
Pretty much. People are being immunised one way or another - the vaccines that have been through all the proper clinical trials with a very good safety record, or the all natural, free range, certified organic vaccine that kills around 1% of the population who take it and leads to long term health complications in an additional 10-30% of the recipients.
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Re: Back in lockdown again.

Post by Troy McLure » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:00 pm

Who pays for the booster shots? Joe public will have to pick up the slack eventually. They could be ongoing for who knows how long.

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Re: Back in lockdown again.

Post by DougieK » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:09 pm

Troy McLure wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:00 pm
Who pays for the booster shots? Joe public will have to pick up the slack eventually. They could be ongoing for who knows how long.
Whoever pays for them it's still infinitely cheaper than what we're doing at the moment.
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Re: Back in lockdown again.

Post by Troy McLure » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:11 pm

Definitely, but the taxpayers can’t fund it for too long.

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Re: Back in lockdown again.

Post by 4liters » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:15 pm

DougieK wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 5:46 pm
Truedogz wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:58 am


Dougie I don't know if Michael West is 'genuinely independent' or not but he is either unaware or deliberately omitted a key piece of information.

Independent doesn't necessarily mean unbiased. See Avi or FJ as an example from either side.
Truedogz wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:58 am


I reported earlier on the conversations I had with contacts in New Zealand and they told me that the offer that Pfizer made to the kiwis and us had an important string attached: the agreement to exclusively use Pfizer as its vaccine supply.

They will not make this public - at least at this time - as both countries still depend on Pfizer. Supporting this is Pfizer's 'offer' was 40 million - our entire requirement. The Kiwis told me that Pfizer was pretty aggressive about it and took out their wrath on them in the fallout from the WTO motion I mentioned previously.

Other than from you on here, I have not heard this piece of information repeated anywhere. Without trying to pass a value judgement on the validity of this information, I would suggest that it were true, the Prime Ministers office would be howling about it at every opportunity they can have.
Truedogz wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:58 am


Both Australia and New Zealand were going down the same path. Buy Pfizer initially as it was going to be the first approved and provides rapid protection but is difficult to transport and store, is very expensive and represents the first broadscale rollout of this style of vaccine = use it for front line workers. Buy AZ when it becomes available later, a more traditional vaccine but slower acting which Australia could manufacture that is easy to transport and store and is more cost effective = use it for the balance of the population.

Any rational person would consider that to be a sound strategy with lower risks. Where would Australia be now if we had taken the Pfizer offer with strings attached and it developed serious issues? At the very least we would have had a significant delay to the rollout while we tried to find an alternate vaccine.

I am not for one moment trying to say the Morrison government did a perfect job with the vaccine rollout which they haven't or that they were totally blameless in their negotiations with Pfizer. But the original choices on how to use Pfizer and AZ were actually sound in the circumstance. It was the selection of their other other vaccine options that can be seriously questioned and the mechanics of the initial rollout left a lot to be desired.
This entire conversation it taking place under the assumption that your 'mate in NZ' has provided a piece of information that as far as I can tell, nobody else has and isn't actually sourcable from anywhere.

Rational strategy would be to acquire enough of every vaccine as soon as possible for every eligible person in the country, at an absolute fraction of the cost of the lockdowns we've experienced since then. I would guess the total cost of the lockdowns would be over 1000 times the cost of buying an pair of AZ, Moderna, Pfizer and whatever else they possibly can to cater for the inevitable tribalised nonsensical bullsh1t that get's pushed by the media every time the PM's office messes something up, which seems to be literally everything they touch.

Taking the highest of each price paid by different countries for vaccines. Pfizer is $19.50 US / dose. AZ is 5.25 US. Moderna is $15.

52 Million Pfizers, at the highest price payed in the world, is just on $1 billion.

52 million AZ's is $273m

52 Million Moderna is $780.

This is assuming every person in the country gets two of everything regardless of age / underlying conditions whatever and it's still only just over $2 billion. We wouldn't actually need anywhere near that much. What's this lockdown costing us again? A bill a week or so?
As I understand, Israel was Pfizer's second choice for rolling out their vaccine and were approached after we knocked them back but Israel has definitely ordered vaccines from other suppliers than Pfizer. It would be strange (but I guess not impossible) for Pfizer to approach Australia with one set of terms but offer Israel something so significantly different. It also seems unusual that given Pfizer had received no safety data or regulatory approval for their vaccine at the time that they would stop countries entering into agreements with other vaccine suppliers. Again, not impossible, and maybe there was more too it including contingencies should the vaccine have shortcomings but it does seem unlikely to me.

An interesting snippet I found while trying to find out information about the Pfizer rollout in Israel, apparently Israel justified the cost by saying it was the same cost to the country as just 2 days of lockdown. Smaller population than Australia but I assume it would scale up to be roughly the same here.
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4liters
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Re: Back in lockdown again.

Post by 4liters » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:18 pm

Troy McLure wrote:
Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:00 pm
Who pays for the booster shots? Joe public will have to pick up the slack eventually. They could be ongoing for who knows how long.
In time I daresay they will end up being treated the same as flu shots and everything else, covered by medicare and the PBS.

It's much cheaper for the taxpayer to fork out $20 for a dose of vaccine than pay $1000s a night to keep a bunch of people in ICUs.
2015/16 Fisting Victoria Species comp total: 289cm
Brown Trout: 37cm
Flathead: 51cm; Squid: 36cm; Australian Salmon: 51cm; Snapper 46cm; Silver Trevally 23cm; KGW: 45cm
Major Sponsor: Rim Master Tackle

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