Corona Virus Part 3

[Stumpjumper]

im still calling bull on china, but interesting to see the singapore one.

This bloke has been crunching some actual numbers with interesting results. Don't know if it's right or wrong.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israe ... r-70-days/

[4liters]

im still calling bull on china, but interesting to see the singapore one.

This bloke has been crunching some actual numbers with interesting results. Don't know if it's right or wrong.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israe ... r-70-days/

This might have something to do with it...

[ducky]

America has 644k cases with only 3.2 million tests performed.

Running a 20% strike rate on tests? I call bull. They aren’t testing. They aren’t reporting properly. Rumour has it if you die with the symptoms but weren’t tested they aren’t testing post mortem and aren’t counting it towards the stats.

Stump jumper. Yes “only” a 3% death rate. (Note. It’s less than that in countries who weren’t overwhelmed. And far higher when they have to triage because they are overwhelmed)

Let’s say the numbers increase by the easily 9% or so that they were increasing by daily. For the next 85 days. From 2 million we are at today. The end result is 3 billion people affected. Let’s assume the same death rate even though it would be overwhelmingly higher. That equates to 90 million people. Gaining at somewhere around 9 million a day at that point.

It’s a ******* terrifying number and we’ve been saved by people making the right calls.

Note. America is in lockdown too. Everyone is quarantining. They made the call too late and 600k+ people are affected.

[Stumpjumper]

This might have something to do with it...

That IS the point mate, no dog in the fight...just pure numbers, that is his claim to fame.

[ducky]

We are 85 days since 580 worldwide and we are at 2 million worldwide?

Plays out in 70 days?

[frozenpod]

As time has progressed treatments have improved, less people are dying and we have increased our capacity.

All of which means we do not need to flatten the curve as much as we otherwise would have.

Thus restrictions can relax.

The best stable and accurate data in the world atm appears to be from S Korea. Death rate of roughly 2.1%.

With the new treatments the death rate should drop to about half and those who will die will mostly have preexisting conditions.

The new treatments will most likely reduce the other damage done by the virus ie heart, lung and kidney damage.

[4liters]

Note. America is in lockdown too. Everyone is quarantining. They made the call too late and 600k+ people are affected.

Not all of it. A lot of the Republican states have refused to issue shelter in place orders and there are now major outbreaks in those places.

South Dakota for example: https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... cbbaef42e4

[4liters]

As time has progressed treatments have improved, less people are dying and we have increased our capacity.

All of which means we do not need to flatten the curve as much as we otherwise would have.

Thus restrictions can relax.

The best stable and accurate data in the world atm appears to be from S Korea. Death rate of roughly 2.1%.

With the new treatments the death rate should drop to about half and those who will die will mostly have preexisting conditions.

The new treatments will most likely reduce the other damage done by the virus ie heart, lung and kidney damage.

What new treatments? Not that malaria stuff Trump was spruiking I hope

[croe04]

'No medical background'
'Leading doctor dismisses his claims'

hmn....

[4liters]

This might have something to do with it...

That IS the point mate, no dog in the fight...just pure numbers, that is his claim to fame.

And no expertise either. He's just created a statistical model based on certain assumptions.

It's hard enough for actual experts with actual experience dealing with actual pandemics to model this thing accurately, let alone some guy with zero expertise in the field.