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All topics related to fishing and angling in Victoria that don't fit into one of the other forum categories.
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4liters
- Rank: Premium Member
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by 4liters » Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:31 pm
This might have something to do with it...
2015/16 Fisting Victoria Species comp total: 289cm
Brown Trout: 37cm
Flathead: 51cm; Squid: 36cm; Australian Salmon: 51cm; Snapper 46cm; Silver Trevally 23cm; KGW: 45cm
Major Sponsor: Rim Master Tackle
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ducky
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by ducky » Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:34 pm
America has 644k cases with only 3.2 million tests performed.
Running a 20% strike rate on tests? I call bull. They aren’t testing. They aren’t reporting properly. Rumour has it if you die with the symptoms but weren’t tested they aren’t testing post mortem and aren’t counting it towards the stats.
Stump jumper. Yes “only” a 3% death rate. (Note. It’s less than that in countries who weren’t overwhelmed. And far higher when they have to triage because they are overwhelmed)
Let’s say the numbers increase by the easily 9% or so that they were increasing by daily. For the next 85 days. From 2 million we are at today. The end result is 3 billion people affected. Let’s assume the same death rate even though it would be overwhelmingly higher. That equates to 90 million people. Gaining at somewhere around 9 million a day at that point.
It’s a ******* terrifying number and we’ve been saved by people making the right calls.
Note. America is in lockdown too. Everyone is quarantining. They made the call too late and 600k+ people are affected.
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Stumpjumper
- Rank: Australian Salmon
- Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:16 am
- Location: NE Victoria
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by Stumpjumper » Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:36 pm
4liters wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:31 pm
This might have something to do with it...
That IS the point mate, no dog in the fight...just pure numbers, that is his claim to fame.
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ducky
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by ducky » Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:39 pm
We are 85 days since 580 worldwide and we are at 2 million worldwide?
Plays out in 70 days?
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frozenpod
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by frozenpod » Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:42 pm
As time has progressed treatments have improved, less people are dying and we have increased our capacity.
All of which means we do not need to flatten the curve as much as we otherwise would have.
Thus restrictions can relax.
The best stable and accurate data in the world atm appears to be from S Korea. Death rate of roughly 2.1%.
With the new treatments the death rate should drop to about half and those who will die will mostly have preexisting conditions.
The new treatments will most likely reduce the other damage done by the virus ie heart, lung and kidney damage.
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4liters
- Rank: Premium Member
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Post
by 4liters » Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:42 pm
ducky wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:34 pm
Note. America is in lockdown too. Everyone is quarantining. They made the call too late and 600k+ people are affected.
Not all of it. A lot of the Republican states have refused to issue shelter in place orders and there are now major outbreaks in those places.
South Dakota for example:
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/healt ... cbbaef42e4
2015/16 Fisting Victoria Species comp total: 289cm
Brown Trout: 37cm
Flathead: 51cm; Squid: 36cm; Australian Salmon: 51cm; Snapper 46cm; Silver Trevally 23cm; KGW: 45cm
Major Sponsor: Rim Master Tackle
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4liters
- Rank: Premium Member
- Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2014 8:05 am
- Has liked: 6 times
- Likes received: 674 times
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by 4liters » Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:43 pm
frozenpod wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:42 pm
As time has progressed treatments have improved, less people are dying and we have increased our capacity.
All of which means we do not need to flatten the curve as much as we otherwise would have.
Thus restrictions can relax.
The best stable and accurate data in the world atm appears to be from S Korea. Death rate of roughly 2.1%.
With the new treatments the death rate should drop to about half and those who will die will mostly have preexisting conditions.
The new treatments will most likely reduce the other damage done by the virus ie heart, lung and kidney damage.
What new treatments? Not that malaria stuff Trump was spruiking I hope
2015/16 Fisting Victoria Species comp total: 289cm
Brown Trout: 37cm
Flathead: 51cm; Squid: 36cm; Australian Salmon: 51cm; Snapper 46cm; Silver Trevally 23cm; KGW: 45cm
Major Sponsor: Rim Master Tackle
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croe04
- Rank: King George Whiting
- Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:07 pm
- Location: Melbourne
- Has liked: 161 times
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by croe04 » Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:45 pm
'No medical background'
'Leading doctor dismisses his claims'
hmn....
Last edited by
croe04 on Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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4liters
- Rank: Premium Member
- Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2014 8:05 am
- Has liked: 6 times
- Likes received: 674 times
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by 4liters » Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:46 pm
Stumpjumper wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:36 pm
4liters wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:31 pm
This might have something to do with it...
That IS the point mate, no dog in the fight...just pure numbers, that is his claim to fame.
And no expertise either. He's just created a statistical model based on certain assumptions.
It's hard enough for actual experts with actual experience dealing with actual pandemics to model this thing accurately, let alone some guy with zero expertise in the field.
2015/16 Fisting Victoria Species comp total: 289cm
Brown Trout: 37cm
Flathead: 51cm; Squid: 36cm; Australian Salmon: 51cm; Snapper 46cm; Silver Trevally 23cm; KGW: 45cm
Major Sponsor: Rim Master Tackle